Pages

Sunday, April 14, 2013


By April 18th, we would have completed 55 days from the recent top of Nifty-6111.80 of January 29, 2013.Since then we have been seeing Nifty describing a diametric formation.
We cautiously surmised that when Nifty moved up from 5478, we had probably seen the end of A leg. But when Nifty fell sharply from 5610 (5994, to be exact) it was evident that there is some more movement left in the downward A leg.
Within the limits of diametric movement what do we see?
   In the words of the great master, Glenn Neely,” Unlike orthodox Elliott Wave, which allows great variance in the behavior, relationships and time consumption of specific patterns, NEoWave imposes strict limits. Accurate forecasting can only be accomplished when precise rules relating to price, time, complexity, behavior and relationships are required of all waves in all patterns.

    An important part of the construction of 3-legged patterns (Flats and Zigzags) is that clear alternation exists between the 3 segments on a time, complexity and behavior basis. Since larger degree patterns (under NEoWave) impose maximum time restrictions on smaller degree patterns, a developing (smaller degree) correction only has so much time to unfold. If a correction is allowed no more than 10 days to form (based on the next larger degree) and the market wants to form a Flat, there can be great variance between waves A, B and C in TIME during period. For example, wave-A might take 1 day while wave-B takes 6 days, leaving 3 days for wave-C. This also follows the necessary TIME alternation required in Flats.

    On the other hand, under the same 10-day time restriction, if a market wants to form a 7-legged formation (such as a NEoWave Diametric), that leaves little room for time variance between waves. Waves-A and B might take 1 day, while C, D and E take 2-days, which only leaves 1-day for waves-F and G. As a result, the more waves a pattern contains, the more similar each must be to fit within the time limits imposed by the larger degree pattern. From personal experience, the limit to the wave "alphabet" is A-B-C-D-E-F-G-H-I, which forms a NEoWave Symmetrical.

    The reason waves-F and G (and sometimes H and I) must be used to label some wave patterns is because specific time and behavior characteristics are required of Flats and Zigzags that are not present in NEoWave Diametrics and Symmetricals. Time relationships during corrections are your primary tool for determining the kind of correction unfolding. If the first 3 waves of a correction are very different in time, a Flat or Zigzag is forming. As time between the waves becomes slightly more similar, a Triangle is the next best choice. As the time between waves becomes very similar (but price differences still exist), a Diametric is your best option. If the waves are very similar in time and also very similar in price, a NEoWave Symmetrical is your only choice.

    Because all corrections possess a specific "time behavior stamp," that is the reason you cannot simply start a new ABC when you become uncomfortable with the continuation of the correction. A completed ABC Flat or Zigzag must possess clear alternation in time between all three waves. If that time alternation is not present, a Flat or Zigzag is NOT forming, but a more complex formation that requires the use of D and E, sometimes F and G and in rare cases, H and I.

In a NEoWave Diametric, the general rule is most wave segments tend toward equality in time, but are different in price. For time similarity to be most obvious, the complexity of the Diametric should not exceed 55 monowaves. If it does, best to move to one higher time frame (i.e., one which is 5 times larger than the chart you are currently looking at - for example, if the Diametric is visible on a Daily chart, but contains more than 55 monowaves, move to a Weekly chart and reassess the Diametric on that time frame).

If the entire Diametric is less than 56 monowaves, then the time variation between each leg of the Diametric will usually be less than 1.618% of the time of an adjacent wave but more than 61.8% of the time of an adjacent wave. Keep in mind, there is usually one exception to this rule in each Diametric where one segment is more than 161.8% (or less than 61.8%) of the time of an adjacent wave.”
So, we look at two alternatives…





If there is a faster retracement of the last fall, then A is complete, with h and i. Or else we have one more x abc to be completed.

Weekly Bollinger Bands suggest that a reversal is on the cards this week...

 
Despite the negative sentiments prevailing because of negative expectations from  IT sector, the technical picture is not all pessimistic.
Astrologically,
Mars, Sun and Venus have now moved on to Aries. Sudden movements could increase.On April 19, Venus sextile Neptune.On April 22, Venus opposite Saturn.
So bumpiness with mild up movements could happen.


Declinations also point out to a mild recovery this week.

14 comments:

  1. Hi suresh,
    This is one really insightful post. covering astro, neo and tech analysis. good going.


    Regards,
    Ankit

    ReplyDelete
  2. Any material on neowave that you would recommend reading?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Pl.Inform about study material regarding Neo Wave Theory.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Dear all,

    Mastering Elliott Waves,( Version 2) by Glenn Neely is a fantastic book. It is going to take a lot of application and patience, but believe me, it is a true classic.

    Warm Regards


    Suresh

    ReplyDelete
  5. Thanks a lot Suresh Ji for this weekly post.

    Rgards,

    Amit Sharma

    ReplyDelete
  6. Good explanation though I find Neowave very difficult to understand.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear KPL Sir,

      Neo Wave is the same as Elliott wave. Only the rules and conditions are more elaborate and much tighter.Whatever is not impulsing is in a correction following elaborate rules applicable to corrections.
      Patterns or waves begin with several options which get narrowed down to one type or wave. The difficulty and skill is in weighing the different options- eliminating them as and when violations occur and then zeroing in on one kind.
      It is tough and at times confusing but quite rewarding for the person who keeps on.

      Warm Regards


      Suresh

      Delete
  7. Hi Suresh

    What are implications of Venus Mars Conjunction on mkts.

    Thanks
    -Amol

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hi Amol,
    Venus Mars conjunction is already over on April 06. It as expected was negative. What we have on April 18, is Mars-Sun conjunction in 04*18" of Aries.Last time it happened in Aries was on May 13, 1998.Nifty had started falling from May 06th and reversed on May 14th, one day after the conjunction.Both Mars and Sun were coming off a square formation with Uranus, then.
    This time, there are no additional aspects. Mars and Sun are conjunct in Ketu star, Aswini, in Aries.Since Moon is in Jupiter, we may still have a reaction, but milder than in 1998.On the other hand, next trading day is April 22, and that is when Venus will oppose Saturn. It also happens to be a day when Moon is in Venus. So the reaction may continue...

    Warm Regards


    Suresh

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Amol,
      There are other non market manifestations of the conjunction.Especially with an opposition developing with Saturn and Rahu in Libra.
      Terrorist attacks, fire accidents and earthquakes are some of them...We saw the Boston Marathon incident and today`s Richter 8 earthquake in Iran....

      Warm Regards


      Suresh

      Delete
    2. Thanks Suresh, also is there is good book for stock market astrology. Currently I am just making charts of various aspects and studying its corresponding effects on mkts.

      Delete
    3. Amol, there cannot be a better guide than our own hard work. Why don't you share your observations? Our discussions will surely benefit both of us and all our fellow readers of this blog.Incidentally aspects are more important in a Western Astrology set up. My sincere advice would be to combine all possible astro studies and form your own deductions and conclusions.
      Let me give you an example. Just like parivarthana, I find that when two planets are conjunct in a natal chart, then they exchange their qualities.Jupiter and Saturn are conjunct in Nifty`s chart. Jupiter is generally detrimental and Saturn is beneficial for Nifty! One would think otherwise is it not?
      Please share your observations. Keep asking questions. Not that I can answer everything. But our discussions will surely attract knowledgeable people who can offer valid explanations.

      Warm Regards


      Suresh

      Delete
  9. Yes your are right, as Astro is very waste and sharing would certainly benefit. One of my observation is that generally mkts take turn on shay tithis. Also there is monthly effect of Nakshatra's. For Example Bharni Nakshatra in Magh/Phalgun months has been problem for mkts.

    ReplyDelete