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Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Nifty Cycles October 14, 2014

In technical analysis, we spend far too much time agonizing over price levels. Actually, time is also very important. In fact advanced Gann theories emphasize that price and time are interchangeable. One way we could measure time in market parlance is through the analysis of cycles.
Market movements are nothing but the composite effect of several cycles acting in unison. Some cycles are very long and some are very short. But all of them are always acting. When significant lows are formed, then several cycles bottom out immediately.So always, in cycle analysis, it is the bottoms which are important.
Here is a chart on  simple daily cycles which keep repeating...
What do we see? The dotted lines are getting bunched up by November, 03, 04 and 05.So we may expect an important low to be formed by that time.Saturn would just enter Scorpio,Debilitated Sun and  Venus could be conjunct in Libra and Ketu and Jupiter would be parting ways from a trine formation.Since the last quarter of a cycle is negative, we must be cautious from October 30 itself.

Is everything going to collapse?
Not really. Look at the monthly chart of Nifty....

Cycles are 18 to 21 months duration and are represented by black lines.The next cycle low is due by March 2015.
The relevant questions are, 
1. Will we see the fractal envelopes repeating? That is will Nifty form a shallow low and keep moving up later on? 
2. Or will she spike out and then form a sharp low?

Iam inclined to the later, that too by the second week of January 2015.Any how, there has to be one big upleg coming, as per this cycle analysis.
Enjoy the unexpected Holiday!



12 comments:

  1. http://niftyastrotechnicals.blogspot.in/search?updated-max=2014-10-10T00:04:00%2B05:30&max-results=7

    Dear Sureshji,

    you had predicted well in advance target of 7793. achived 7796

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank God! Somebody had noticed! Let me really thank you Pankaj for following my blog and keeping a dialogue going. That is surely the way both of us can enrich ourselves.

      Warm Regards


      Suresh

      Delete
    2. Dear Sureshji,

      i am enjoying your blog. i will admit that your rebirth, i mean your second inning of blog after a long break is extra ordinary.more over, its a deadly combination of astro techno study.more over you are not rigid and open to discuss. normally tech guys do not like to see others wave counts.i suggested you an alternate view and you put it with charts on your blog.

      more over, now a days regularly an update is there. that makes it more interesting. so as soon as a question arises in mind what next and reply is there on blog !

      i appreciate your conviction .even Kpl sir has also appreciated your work in VFM.

      Pankaj Shah

      Delete
    3. Thank you Pankaj. Iam honoured.

      Delete
  2. Sir,
    Please guide what are the time cycles as per Hour T/F and how to decide stop loss based on that time cycles.I trade on 3 Hour swing H/L in direction of 3Day swing H/L with SLO on 3 H.swing H/L( Positional if SLO hits on 3 H.H/L I do not c/o but squred off same day.) Usually my entery for I-D will be after one hour and for positional is last 30 Miniutes of market clsoe.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear Harish,
      Just like waves, cycles are more reliable for the daily, weekly, monthly, yearly etc., Nevertheless, I will attempt to look at hourly cycles and post here.

      Suresh

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    2. Thanks lot Sir,for your kind and early reply.Please guide for horly time cycles when you have time.

      Delete
  3. Dear Sureshji,
    Nowadays I am looking daily in the morning Is there any update in your blog. It just made me mad and
    your technical and astro analysis is really super. Its really help me more when i take huge position. Keep
    it up sir.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you Madan for your kind endorsement. As I had said on earlier occasions, my ability to post more frequently is related to the time I have.Iam happy to know, I am of help!

      Delete
  4. My Dear Sureshji

    Kudos to you and and also for your selfless work.

    I wonder can anyone give such a clarity to markets.

    Your blog up dation is indeed a big boon to all novice market participants like me.

    I find no words to exactly express my heartfelt appreciation.

    Thanks a million

    Kannan

    ReplyDelete
  5. Thank you Kannan. But there are several better experts in the market and Iam also only a learner.

    Warm Regards


    Suresh

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My Dear Sureshji

      True. You are training us to be flexible in understanding the markets which is a rare commodity.

      The most important thing which i should record is, the kind of hard work and selfless work and on top of it sharing your knowledge only few people do.

      I am sure GOD will always smile at you.

      Thanks a million

      Regards

      Kannan

      Delete