March low of 8269 was lower than February low of 8471.
March close of 8491 was much lower than February close of 8902.
This has bearish implications this month. We may reasonably expect March low of 8269 to be broken sometime during the month. Every such dip is to be bought for investments, because the underlying bullish trend is still intact, for the longer term.
Weekly has formed an inside bar, where the low is higher than previous week`s low but the high is lower than previous week`s high. So the reversal is not complete yet. So the uptrend we see is only a counter trend which needs to be monitored for downward reversal again. See the circled portions in the chart, including those in the Stochastics.
Daily chart is the one which connects us with our trading.
Here we see higher high and higher low formation. We also see that the daily has broken out of the complex correction channel. So most of us would have been stopped out and must be long now. Daily suggests that a counter trend is on its way and we need to be in on it as longs. However unless Nifty crosses 80% of the down move, ( 8947) we consider the short term downtrend to be intact. Likely levels to watch out are 8686 ( 50%) and 8792 ( 61.8%).
So what is our expectation for Nifty in the coming week?
We look at some daily charts including cycles and Neo waves.....
As per Neowave, we had concluded that we are in Wave d of the diametric formation from wave 2nd x of 7724.Since all legs of a diametric have some sort of time equality. and since waves a,b and c ( of the current diametric) have all been 28 to 34 days so far, we expect this wave d also to be of similar duration. Wave d has completed 19 days so far..Minimum of 28 days means April 17 or thereabouts should see the completion of wave d. Since wave d has been going lower, this means that there is some more downside for Nifty. This also means that the current uptrend is a correction to the downmove from March 04.In other words, that is wave b of d and we may expect one more wave c of d downwards, after this b gets completed. As indicated earlier we watch out for 8686 and 8792 as indicative secondary tops.
Coming to cycles, we have been indicating that for the shorter blue cycle, April 06 or a couple of days after could be the cycle top.We had also mentioned that the blue cycle is currently undergoing an inversion, which means when the cycle tops out Nifty makes a bottom. That has now been accomplished. The amplitude of the bigger red cycle is stronger to the downside and so the cycles suggest that there is some more weakness left in Nifty.
Note how the Neo Waves and the cycles perfectly correlate. One additional information given by our blue cycle is that May 11th or 12th could see an important bottom. This we have to wait and see.
What about astro? strictly speaking for the next week`s trade, we have clear indications from Technicals itself and there is no pressing need to look into astro. But then we love to see those also don`t we?
Before we go into astro formations, let us just look at an interesting Gann angle chart..
I have shaded a portion of the chart and this portion is enclosed within two Gann lines, 1x1 upper line and 2x1, lower line.We see that Nifty slipped out of the 1x1 angle line and if we observe closely it had slipped out of a parallel angle line to the 1x1 line. One of the Cardinal Principles of the Great Master is that time and price must square out. Which means Nifty should reach the 1x2 line sometime in the future before a big uptrend begins again. Nifty will achieve this either in a quick down move, or may move sideways spending time and reach the 1X2 timeline. ( Gann angles are more of timelines and not trend lines.) Remember, when we were discussing Neowave, we had understood that we are in a diametric and we are now in wave d? That means we have wave e up,wave f down and finally wave g up.Those up and down movements should take Nifty to 1x2 angle line.A possible square out timeline of the move from 7724 is shown as violet lines. Let us rememeber that the violet line does not indicate that Nifty would reach there, It is just a turning point in future, which needs to be closely watched.
What about the vertical blue bands?
I have enlarged them here...
1.April 04, is the lunar eclipse + Blood Moon
2.April 08 is Jupiter turning direct
3.April 10 is Mercury conjunct Sun
4.April 15 is Venus trine Saturn
5.April 16 is Pluto Retrograde.
Out of the 5 aspects, other than Mercury conjunct Sun all others are negative.
So astro expectations are that from April 08, till April 17 at least, we may see a down trend.
Now see how all parameters are agreeing, Technicals, Neo wave, Cycles and Astro.
So we be long till we are stopped out. This can possibly happen by April 08. Then if AND ONLY IF Nifty turns down, breaks a previous low on the hourly, we go short..
So, happy and profitable trading once more!