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Sunday, May 3, 2015

Nifty Astro Technicals May 04-08, 2015

The last week of April 2015, was quite significant for our markets. Nifty breached 8269 convincingly and reached a low of 8145 before closing at 8182. Now this was also the weekly and monthly closings.
Nifty is truly at cross roads now. Point E is the August 2013 low of 5119. Since then Nifty has been forming a triple combination consisting of a diametric till wave x and then another diametric till 2nd x. SAfter that it looked like it was forming a third and last diametric, but at the crucial leg e, it had weakened considerably more than it should and it has also formed a low weekly and monthly closing.As per Neo wave, triple combinations must end with the 2nd x formation.
So now we have two possibilities:
1. The last wave is forming an irregular flat, of which waves a and b has been completed and what is remaining is the last leg c of the flat. With that e is over,and we may have f down and g up, before the triple correction is finally over.This would mean the final culmination could come in two months.For this Nifty must strongly move up and close above 8845 in the next several weeks.
2.After 2nd x, we are not forming another diametric at all, but a triangle whose last leg is e and has been completed at 8845. This would be confirmed if Nifty moves up, closes wel below 8845 and then moves down and breaks 8065 on a closing basis.If so then we could see 7000 levels in Nifty pretty quickly.
By regular TA, we see lower top and lower bottoms being formed and this also supports option 2.

In the monthly chart also, Nifty has formed the second consecutive bear candle and has convincingly broken out of the long term 45 degree line.We have seen that in the past, if the original timing line of 45 degrees is violated, then Nifty tends to take support on another parallel line to the 45 degree line.It is marked in black.Another significance is the slope of the green arc.This is intercepting the black parallel line at 7724 or thereabouts, in about two months time. If this line does not hold then we look to the black arrow line along the red arc, to 6700 levels.  
Let us focus a little closer...

And the daily...

This points out to a 8500-8600 level of retracement immediately. So the longer term charts are suggesting more weakness and the daily chart is suggesting a pull back..
Simple angles point out that the time and price squaring is nearly over and a pull back could happen this week, upto May 13 to 15.
Extrapolation gives us additional dates into the future...
Our summation?
Nifty could bottom out temporarily in a day or two and start a pull back till the middle of May, 2015.
Of course we move only if prices confirm..

Happy trading!

33 comments:

  1. as always Fantastic but i feel tht A trap rally to 8450 first or a Short term bottom ?

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  2. Manoj, the down move has already consumed 12 days. So the risk reward is not in favour of further immediate down moves. We now must look for an entry point for a pull back. And yes that could prove to be a trap rally. But we need confirmation for that! Simply put, no shorts above 8627 and no longs below 8065!

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    Replies
    1. perfectly defined thanks suresh bhai

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  3. Hello sir.
    Thanks for sharing.
    Will it be prudent to trade day wise this month. Like long till 12-14 and short for the rest of the month.
    Only if price confirms.
    Regards

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  4. market will go up from monday 4th may onwards .up move will be sharp and swift .next major correction will be from 18/22 may onwards .my target for the bottom is 7000 .top target is 8650

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  5. Your analysis has Divine grace .
    Abundance of gratitude.

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  6. thx sir for your valueable view. can we buy near 8100 with sl 8065 for tgt 8420-50 for this week?

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    1. Dear Ramandeep Singh,
      Buying should be done with the full realisation that the medium term trend is down. First hurdle is 8300 and then 8425.Let me stress on the importance of stop losses.Let us not be brave now.We need to be prudent.

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  7. Thank you very much for your hard work ..Gratitude ..

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  8. hello sir,
    how will it be confirmed whether we are forming a triangle or another diametric.
    can it be known early or only after it has happened.
    regards.

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    Replies
    1. QuEeNhAvInA, that is an interesting question. Problem is all triangles are a little unruly.It depends on the triangle formation. If the legs tend to be similar in time then we have both options in consideration. Behaviour during and after e leg is what differentiates a triangle from a diametric.Also any pattern in the middle is the least predictable. Only when it nears its end will it lend itself to a prediction.

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  9. Permit me to share my views on long term of Nifty based on Bi-Monthly data
    http://lalitlk-lalit-lk.blogspot.in/2015/05/bi-monthly-cnx-nifty-with-elliot-wave.html

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  10. Thank You for the news and updates on nifty would like to follow it

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    Replies
    1. Suhani, please refrain from posting your ads here. If you have anything worthwhile to add to this post then you may comment. Using this space for your promotion is not appreciated.

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  11. Hi Suresh, I still think we may be in a Diametric. I have presented my arguments in my post here.

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    Replies
    1. Mahesh, I had also not written off the diametric. See the first possibility of my post. Only that other possibilities have also opened up.

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    2. 38 days for a D wave is a little shaky. D waves do not tend to be large and so time consuming in typical diametrics. One of my possibilities is of E wave in the form of an irregular flat.Another of course is that the triple combination is already done away with.

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  12. Hello sir,
    A midterm review will be helpful.
    Regards

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  13. yes suresh bhai aftr a crash we require u to update us wt next pls update

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  14. 7700-7800 COMING SOONER THAN EXPECTED...

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  15. sir,
    with moon transiting out of scorpio can we expect a short term bottom has been formed and can expect a small retracement.
    also mars is being aspected by retro Saturn does that change the expected movement of nifty.
    regards

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  16. QuEeNhAvInA, Yes Scorpio is rendered unstable because of Saturn in Anuradha and that too retrograde.When Moon moves to Sagittarius, first she will be in Ketu star. Now Ketu also is in Saturn star, and so will behave like Saturn. Which means bearishness to continue. By 12.52 pm, Moon moves to Venus star. That is a far better situation and so we may expect a bottom formation and a rise after that.
    Mars opposite Saturn is another headache. These are conflicting energies and may have a confusing effect. This happens by May 15. By that time we also have Venus square to Rahu and Ketu.So bearishness may resume after 13th or so.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks for the confirmation sir.
      Another small observation please confirm
      I believe jupiter is in Capricon navmasa and unless it moves from here the current volatility will not end. Is it correct ?
      Regards.

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  17. Jupiter enters Capricorn Navamsa only on 11th.I have my doubts on this line of thinking.Jupiter was in Sagittarius so far .What happened? Better to stick with Lagna chart.June looks to be bullish.

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    Replies
    1. Further Jupiter trines Uranus by June 22.So we may expect a big bullish whoosh in June till this date.The last trine date was March 3rd.Does it ring a bell?

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  18. LOL,
    Thanks sir. Was trying to figure out all possibilities. Just read somewhere while surfing jupiter is in makar a navmasa and analysed that.
    Thanks for the reassurance.
    Regards

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  19. i little bit confused with all this sir,.
    Just ask you simple Question
    What to do now...should we go for long or we should go short ??

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    Replies
    1. Hiren, why dont you read the summation in the blog post? It is quite clear no?

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  20. upto which date we should go long or short???

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    Replies
    1. Hiren, never follow a predetermined date for your trading positions. Just take the trade and manage your stop loss. By managing, I mean, move the stop loss, up when the market moves up. Now if you have taken a short and the market moves down, keep moving your stop loss down.Keep a watch on the dates suggested in the blog post. But do not fully rely on it. Use it as a guideline.

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  21. Sir,

    How long will the bearish period starting on 13th May last and when we uy for high of 22 June. TIA

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  22. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  23. Sir ,My Name is Maruthi . I am an Astrology Student .in this Studies shall we use Starslord also ? (i maean Stellar astrology or Nakshatra siddantha)

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