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Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Nifty Long term cycles

Look at this chart...

  • The cycle connecting the 2013 bottom and 2015 top reveals the 2016 December bottom..marked by a vertical double arrow.
  • First major bottom after 2013 bottom connects with the 2016 bottom through a 45 degree angle line. ( Line incorporating two small black arrows.)
  • Nifty is about to touch the 45 degree line which originates from 2013 bottom.Previous time it crossed this line was during the top formation of September 2016.
  • Look at the second cycle.It connects the 2015 March top and 2016 Feb bottom.The 2016 September top rests exactly on this cycle.
  • This is now revealing a potential topping zone now, as indicated by the thin purple vertical line.I have also marked a small blue arrow to indicate the position.
  • On the other hand, Nifty is also interestingly poised for a long term break out, once it closes above 9119.
  • Logic cautions us to be careful at this juncture and wait for pull backs before taking fresh longs.

14 comments:

  1. Dear , I am an avid follower of your posts , and have great due respect of your knowledge . So sureshji I am heavily short on nifty from 8950 kind of levels . As your earlier posts read on topping out for a medium term basis , do you see markets topping out here !!! And if 9118 is broken should I cover my shorts .

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  2. As fed rates are out and us markets have stabilised !! Dollar index crashing !! A great platform for nifty to be optimistic!!! All makes a great case for Nifty to go past 9122 the day before yesterday's 52 week high !!!

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  3. From Feb 10 2017 post..."From 09 February to April 04, Rahu dasa is in operation. Rahu is placed in the 12th. Rahu is also in Ketu star which is known for causing sudden developments.We may see a small market top somewhere in the period Feb 10 to April 04.By March 31, Rahu moves to 11th house. Again markets may start rising because the next dasa is that of Jupiter.
    Here Iam using the transit charts also along-with the Natal horoscope which seems to correlate..."
    From Feb 12 2017 post..." If so we expect a top in 5 to 6 months, because of Saturn Uranus trine..."
    February 19 2017 post on Mars-Uranus-Jupiter-combo..
    March 05, 2017 post.."...February 2016 was a significant bottom. We have moved just 12 months.We are in the beginning of the 13th month. Nifty seems to have a lot of room to move up! Even for a half primary top, another six to eight months is left..."

    If we go even earlier...from December 11, 2016 post.
    "..See how beautifully and rhythmically the market functions!
    From March 2015, Nifty moved down and gave a cycle bottom.Subsequent upmove from 6825 terminated at the time cycle circumference.Nifty moved down along the circumference and then away. It is now attempting to reach the circle again. When it does so, it will reach an inflexion point.It is likely to move down to gather strength to make a new bull move.Red line is the diameter of the time circle.
    All this rhythm despite loud noises of demonetisation, Trump winning, Italian referendum, Fed rate hike and what not!..."
    If you are following this blog how on earth did you get so short?
    To answer your question, yes, I think a short term correction is in the offing...but medium term is still bullish..
    If you have the guts, close the counter trade and join the trend..You can easily recoup your losses. Even in the short term, if Nifty closes above 9119, it will move further up before the correction comes in.
    At least hedge your trades, if you can afford it.

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    Replies
    1. Yes and I have been following your posts religiously !!! May be I got confused in the last post where I thought 9000 was the short term top . As nifty retriated back and forth twice !! Now I am stuck big time !! I guess you are right again that there is lot more room from here as it is a uncharted territory from here on . May I look at any closing levels or just close my shorts in opening trade !! Then look at a correction to get back in the market again !! Or hold on too my shorts with a higher stoploss to get out in a mini correction !! I was affirmative on markets going up but don't know what caused this shorting and negative effect in my mind !!

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  4. But now moving to long position from neutral position may not be worthy as shown in chart by purple line & circles and date also arrived as posted in previous posts just plan to buy after decent retracement or date near 14 april would be fruitful for new position your thoughts suresh ji
    keep the good work continue

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  5. Just do not be in a counter trend.And do not anticipate.Market will give enough time for decent entry and exits.Being prepared and acting on anticipations are two different things!It is ok to be neutral and wait for a better entry.It is not ok to be short right now.If you understand this difference trading will be very easy!

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  6. Sir when can we expect downfall in markets.

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    1. Coming two weeks is crucial Micky. That is within the next 11 trading days a top may form.

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  7. Sir you are saying bottom will form near 14 april and top will be form near 31 march how will this happen or you are saying top can happen any time in next 11 session or bottom can form after 14 april is also possible

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    1. Rule 01: Astro based dates are range dates, because the planets have orbs. Once we identify the range we arrive at a tentative date. The slew of aspects which we saw since March 01, may cause a top, or a sideways movement. My take is a top. That could be between now and March 31. Markets can fall quicker than they go up..we all know that. So April 14 bottom also is plausible. Remember the higher the market goes, higher would be the bottom. A low formation in a bull market is entirely different from a low formation in a bear market. The underlying astro factors for long term bullishness are quite strong. So declines may not be severe. Alternatively instead of a decline, market could also move sideways for several days. Please note that a sideways movement also is a change in trend.

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    2. Rule 02: Once you identify the range, then use technicals to decide your entry and exit points. Do not try to catch the top or bottom using astro or anything else. It is simply not worth the effort. If we capture the " meat" of a move that should be more than enough.

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    3. Rule 03: Let us not worry too much about the range dates of change. We just have to keep in mind and as and when the range approaches, be vigilant with our positions. How does it really matter if the bottom is formed on 13th April or 16th April? If we take a sell position now hoping that the market would hammer a bottom by April 14 or whatever, that is poor use of Astro and poor trading technique. The whole of Astro is a Leading Indicator.

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    4. Sureshji as you had mentioned that From March 16 to March 31 Market may top % form a Top . what levels or percentage can it correct to from here if a top is made at 9218

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  8. Thanks for all the insight Sureshji.

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