Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Nifty Dasa Analysis February 24, 2015

This article attempts to understand how Nifty futures and by extension Nifty behaves during the current dasa period. Nifty is undergoing Rahu dasa-Venus sub period-Jupiter sub sub period -Mercury sub sub sub period. This last period is from February 18 to March 08, 2015.
Jupiter sub sub period is from 3rd January 2015 to 29 May 2015. We know from 3rd January till today ( February 24, 2015) Nifty has moved from 8364 to 8997 and is now at 8762.Throughout this period Jupiter had been retrograde. He will become Direct only on April 08, 2015. He will continue to be in Aslesha, ruled by Mercury till July 14th,2015, when he will ingress into Leo.
How have the Rahu Venus Jupiter dasa periods been in the past?
How will  the current period of Feb 18 to March 08 be?
What can we expect till May 29th, 2015?
Let us attempt to find some answers to these questions. Of course it is an educative attempt and is limited and defined only by my lack of knowledge. I request seniors and learned astrologers to pardon me for any wrong projections!
We look at Nov24 to Dec 16 time period of 2003.During that Rahu-Rahu-Venus-Jupiter period, we saw a sustained uptrend.It was the beginning of a permanent re-rating of our stock markets. FIIs had just discovered India...

As mentioned in the chart. all concerned planets strongly signified 11th house and Nifty zoomed!

The Main dasa lord Rahu had become very powerful at this time by his association with an exalted Saturn.Venus in Libra, is as comfortable as a housewife in her own home! She is friends with Saturn and when Rahu conjuncts Saturn, she also is an extension of Saturn.Jupiter was placed in Punarvasu, his own star...Result?  Beginnings of  another major move....

Upto May 09th, Venus moves through Pisces, Aries Taurus and 7 degrees of Gemini. All these are good houses for Nifty.But Rahu in the third house in Moon star is not auspiciously placed. Jupiter in Mercury star also is not good, but being in his exaltation house, he may be expected to bestow better results.
Summing up: We expect some positive moves with volatility till the budget, a fall immediately after the budget, and then some good pick up in March possibly upto 16th March and then a fall.
A new strong uptrend could begin in second week of April and last upto end of May.
Friends, I reiterate.
You need not know the future to be a successful trader.
Just identify and follow the trend. That is all.
All these analytical exercises are simply to educate ourselves in a fun sort of way and an attempt to satisfy the undying spirit of curiosity in each of us, which of course is the very hallmark of the human race!
Thank you for your patience!

Sunday, February 22, 2015

TCS- Astro Technical view

TCS seems to have begun its 4th wave on its long term charts. Since wave 2 was a simple correction, wave 4 can be a complex correction involving x waves.It will also consume time. We may look at enter at 1800 levels once it comes down from current highs.

Nifty Astro Technicals February 23 to 28, 2015

During the forthcoming week, from February 23 to 28 eot, Moon moves through the stars of Aswini, ruled by Ketu  to Thiruvathira, ruled by Rahu.That is through the 10th, 11th and 12th houses of Nifty Futures.In transit, Saturn from the 5th house strongly trines with Venus, Mars and Ketu in the 9th.
Throughout the entire period of week, the Nodes reverse and go direct.When they become normal again, markets may reverse.
Here are the aspects of the week:
February 22 Venus and Mars are conjunct in Pisces
February 23 Sun Saturn square
February 24 Saturn trines Venus
February 26 Saturn trines Mars
February 26 Sun Neptune conjunction
February 27 Neptune is at extreme distance

February 27 Moon reaches its maximum declination
I had discussed about " Effect dates" of aspects in the past. Effect dates of all these important celestial aspects are slated to become effective not this week, but from March 1st week onwards.
It is important to note that the ascendant starts travelling in Aries from March 03 onwards.  
So astrologically, Nifty looks to move up, but with heavy volatility and countermoves.Daily gains maybe incremental but there maybe hugh intra day moves. In other words, despite so much hype about budget, we had not yet witnessed a strong rally.The market seems to be a bit circumspect, despite global cues becoming positive.
It is time we looked at our cycle charts..
 We see the red cycle of 108 days slowing down as we approach February 28.The smaller blue cycle is already turning down.This is one more reason for heightened volatility.Interestingly after the budget there is a suggestion of a strong upmove and a topping out.
Neo waves wise, we are in wave e of the forming diametric or alternatively, we are in wave c of c wave which had begun 24 trading days ago, when Guv Rajan announced a surprise rate cut.
If 8997 gets taken out on good volumes, we may see an extended c wave.Or else, 9082 or 9140 should form a first resistance level from which Nifty could react down.

 Hourly angles suggest that the congestion going on for a few days could be over and we may see an upmove. Feb 25 and March 05 seem to be important turn periods intra day wise.
When we closely analyse wave c of c, we see that the present leg is an impulse, with wave 4 forming a diamond shaped diametric. So wave 5 upwards is pending.Another 200 odd levels, budget or no budget.
Finally a look at long term weekly charts...
Weekly cycles suggest that there is more time correction to be done, for a top of 9800+ to be reached.So possibly we are moving towards an intermediate top in March?

Trade carefully, because the budget week is also the settlement week. Enough and more reasons for volatility.

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Venus and Elder

Venus Remedies is showing a low angle of Ascent. It seems to have completed one xabc format. This means there is a possibility for another xabc formation.

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Ind Swift Laboratories

Ind Swift Laboratories seems to have bottomed out at 22 and technically the prolonged correction from 2004 seems to have come to an end.The stock is beginning a new cycle as of now.
What does Astro say?
The stock is currently undergoing Rahu period with Jupiter sub period.
Rahu is in the second house but in Moon star. Moon is a 12th house lord for this stock. So unless Rahu moves to Sun star, we may not see much traction.Also Jupiter must come out of the retrograde period. Rahu comes to Sun star on July 13, 2015.And Jupiter becomes direct on April 09th. So post April 09th, Ind Swift may start a steady uptrend.After June 2015, Ind Swift enters the Saturn sub period. As long as Saturn is retrograde, this uptrend or sideways trend may continue. Once Saturn becomes direct on August 03rd, things could turn difficult and only when Saturn enters Mercury star on December 29, 2015, shall the uptrend resume once again.


Mars in Pisces along with Venus

Mars moves through Jupiter, Saturn and Mercury stars in Pisces.Pisces  is the ninth house for Nifty futures and Mars is a malefic both naturally and functionally.While Venus, a natural benefic, is in her exaltation in Pisces. So how has Nifty fared in the past? Let us take a trip down memory lane to a few years...
In 2013, when Mars entered Pisces, shown in yellow highlight, there was a reversal of down trend and formation of a short term peak. When Venus joined Mars, Nifty resumed the down trend in a more pronounced manner.
We see the same trend in 2011. Nifty moves up from a sideways trend, forms a short term peak and then when Venus joins Mars, Nifty reacts down more pronouncedly.

Here is a complete reversal! Mars enters Pisces when Venus is already there, but in a retrograde fashion.So while Mars goes through Pisces at his pace, Venus retrogrades there and leaves Pisces only after Mars leaves. When retrograde Venus conjuncts with Mars in Pisces, we see a huge inversion- market shoots up consistently. Added catalyst is the presence of Uranus!  

Both in 2007 and in 2002 ( added as just a flavour of a more distant past), Nifty forms a top,forms a low and then reverses to a higher high. This tells us that it is the presence of Venus in direct motion,  in its exalted sign, which actually pulls the market down and causes a lower low.  
Now, I admit this exercise is too simplistic. We must consider the effects of other planets also to get a more complete picture.
So fast forward to 2015...
Let us also look at the total astro chart for some more information...

What strikes us is the total benevolent long term influences amongst these many occupants of Pisces.Jupiter forming trine with Venus, Mars and Uranus.Also Uranus and Pluto squaring for the last time in our lives.Sure, Venus will pull the market down, conjunctions of Venus with Ketu and Mars with Ketu also may pull the market down, yet because of the positive influences of the long term planets, Nifty may recover.
In other words, Nifty should move up slowly, with great volatility, brought about by Mars, Venus and Ketu conjunction.
But things definitely will come to a head in March where the positivity may give way to a move towards the mean, what is called as mean reversion.So trade cautiously.Capital protection is always the first concern.

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Crude Oil Outlook 2015

Crude seems to be in the final leg of wave c. It is expected to bottom out 9 months from now, in November 2015.Green shade represents the upmove period from 2000 to 2008 and the purple shade depicts the time period of correction from 2008 to the present period. We see that the corrective period equals the uptrend period, more or less.Since corrections take longer than up-moves, we expect the bottom for Crude to be sometime in November or early December 2015. 80 to 90 is a severe resistance zone- so right now crude is for trading and not for investing.
This also means that the current uptrend is only corrective and crude should resume its downtrend after this upmove. That ought to be c of c and may bring crude`s downward trajectory to an end.

Monday, February 16, 2015

Nifty Astro Technicals Feb 16 to 20, 2015

On February 13, 2015, Mars has moved into Pisces. Here it will move through Jupiter, Saturn and Mercury stars.
We see that Mars in Pisces will form a peak and then a down trend starts in most cases.
On February 16, 2015, Venus ingresses into Pisces as well. Venus in Pisces also corresponds to a peak formation and a down trend later on.
February 19, 2015, 05.17.08 am. We have a New Moon in Aquarius. This New Moon triggers the mid-point of Uranus Pluto square. At 12.57 hours, the same day, Moon will be the closest to the Earth. This could increase the intensity of the New Moon. New Moon is in Mars star, and Mars is in Pisces in the star of Saturn. So we may expect more news of reforms, some of them radical. Since Saturn and Mars are involved will it be a little bitter?
Also Rahu is in the mid-point of Jupiter Saturn formation. So there is confusion in the minds of powers that be as to the next course of action. While Jupiter wants to give, Saturn does not want to. And Rahu acts exactly like Saturn. So any economic news may be taken only with a pinch of salt.
Anyway Sun is also in the midpoint of Uranus Pluto square. So it is something to do with Governments. My take is it will lead to more global bullishness.
On February 22, 2015, Mars and Venus are conjunct. Market tends to move up in the short term, after the conjunction.
On February 23, 2015, Sun squares Saturn and that generally corresponds to a peak within 3 to 4 days and a jerky fall immediately.
So the current uptrend looks to continue till the weekend or at best till early next week after which a short term pull back can occur.
Be on the watch out on February 19/20 also for any sudden pull back caused by the New Moon.

Next week and into March first week we have several important aspects coming up. My take is that volatility should increase from here on, notwithstanding the budget.

Still expect volatility spikes. . so be careful with your trades.
Let Lord Shiva guide you all the way from this Maha Shivaratri!

Thursday, February 12, 2015

Dow Jones and Gold charts Feb 2015

We had last seen Dow Jones on November 27th 2014,which is available in this link...

Nothing much has changed with the Dow. We had expected the Dow to face resistance at 18000 levels.That is what happened. Dow turned down from 18000 and had gone down up to 17037 and is now attempting another go at 18000.As I write this article, Dow is at 17934.
So, how do the charts look now?

This time round, Dow may break 18000 and march towards 18650...

In the hourly, we see that Dow has broken out of the descending channel convincingly.

Look at the astro chart. Jupiter is in 22 degrees Cancer, while the Ascendant is at 25 deg Cancer. In April, Jupiter is becoming direct. So it will lord over Dow Jones. Jupiter happens to be a significator of 6 and 9th house.So generous price appreciation is to be expected. Also Rahu will move into the second house shortly. Since Rahu is in Moon star, this movement also may cause bullishness.Once the congestion in the 8th house dissipates, Dow is saet to take off. So we may expect other world markets also to follow suit.

Gold is a totally different market, altogether...

As can be seen, Gold is about to commence first wave of c..This means that Gold may go below $1000.

Nifty Technicals Update Feb 12, 2015

This is an updated cycles chart.Due to the interplay between the smaller blue cycle and the longer and more powerful red cycle..(blue wants down and red wants up), Nifty is treading water at 8600- 8650 levels. Eventually the red cycle direction may prevail.Comparing with the previous red cycle and Nifty behaviour, it looks to be a more sedate rise, cycles wise, rather than spectacular and Nifty may or may not cross the previous top in one go. Actually it is academic because as a trader, I would simply hang on the coat tails of Nifty and go where she goes.Wave wise, the drop to 8400 levels was wave d and the next rise should be wave e and it may cross the previous top.

Wockhardt --Feb 11, 2015

Pictures speak louder than words. Wockhardt is in a corrective mode. Look to see if it tops out somewhere between 1600 to 1800 in the current upmove. Then wave c should begin down in a prolonged correction. So short term is up, but medium term is down..
Friends, it is extremely difficult for me to keep analysing individual stocks on specific requests. Paucity of time is the major reason. Despite  mentioning this several times, I keep getting such requests!So,  I intend to start an analysis section for stock  specific requests, but it may not be for free.Also the service will commence only after April, 2015, when Jupiter becomes direct! If you are interested you may contact me at my mail id,
Sorry, but there is no other way...

LT An update Feb 11, 2015

This is an update and course correction for the views given on LT in the following post:

Let us see how LT is likely to fare in the coming days....
LT has ended its long term correction and is now in a new impulse. Currently we are close to topping out in wave 1. Some correction in wave 2 should bring the stock down. It should be an excellent buy later in the year, for a prolonged rise.
 For the very short term it is a buy, but be careful of overhead resistance at 1740 levels. That should be a temporary top for a second wave reaction.

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Ashok Leyland- an astro view

Ashok Leyland a technical view ( February 10, 2015)

Since the long term chart is showing that wave 3 has ended and 4 has begun, it would be prudent for investors,to use the imminent upmove on budgetary conditions to get out of Ashok Leyland for the time being. For the short term of a month or so, Ashok Leyland can be bought and possibly sold off post budget.
After the 4th wave, which may last a few months, (fewer than wave 2 because wave 2 was complex and so wave 4 could be simple) Ashok Leyland could be bought for the medium term and ride wave 5 upwards into 2016.  If Ashok Leyland is available between Rs 45-50 after the budget correction, it may be a good medium term buy.

Nifty Update February 10, 2015

Sunday, February 8, 2015

Havells India Astro Technicals

Havells has an interesting stock market chart. Lagna is Taurus and Yogakaraka Saturn is in the Lagna! ( He also has a dualistic 12th house role).lagna lord Venus is in the 11th and is exalted. Fifth lord Sun, is also in the 11th, with Venus.So the stock has great performance potential.Jupiter and Ketu are troublesome, since they represent 8 and 12 houses. Since Mars owns 7th house,it implies neutrality.
Currently Havells is going through Rahu dasa, Saturn anthara and Mars sub period.
Rahu is in Moon star in the 5th.Saturn is in 7th and Mars is in Jupiter star which is a malefic.
After the present down trend which is a correction,  Havells can be accumulated 

Long term wave counts suggest that Havells has made a top.Correction has started currently.
Daily chart shows the wave counts broken down ...we seem to be in wave c of a, in the downtrend. 

Aurobindo Pharma update

Last time we had mentioned that Aurobindo shall touch 1238 and then reverse into 4th wave. Actually it went up to 1275 and now has closed at 1109.Looks like 4th wave has begun. First level should be 23.6 % retracement level of 1008. Since wave 2 was simple, as per alternation theory, wave 4 could be complex and time consuming.
Astro wise, Aurobindo is going through Rahu Dasa Venus antara, upto October 30, 2017. Rahu is currently in Moon star, and Moon is a 12th house significator. By July 14th, Rahu will move into Sun star. By July 28th, 2015, Venus will become retrograde at 06.38 degrees in Leo, in the star of Ketu.Aurobindo may start improving from then on. Currently use every rise to lighten positions.
Let us wait for one more bear candle in monthly to confirm long term counts.

Biocon Update Feb 06 2015

Biocon looks to bottom out in the 390 to 400 range. Wave 5 of 3 should begin soon. Expected target is 550 levels.Those levels should see the culmination of wave 3.

Nifty Astro Technicals Feb 06 to 13, 2015

This was our observation last week, ( February 01, 2015):

"Looking at astro formations, we begin the week with Aquarius rising and Moon in Gemini, in the 5th.
Jupiter retro is in the 6th, Venus and Sun are in the 12th.After a weak start markets may bounce back, especially till the Full Moon.
Full Moon on 4th February, triggers the Uranus Mars midpoint and gives an effect which is as if Mars is in conjunction to Uranus. Already Uranus and Ketu are inflamed. Since they are in Mercury star, they have been giving sudden, surprising moves in all markets, especially in the currency market. With this translation, Mars also adds its aggression to the equation. Since Pisces represents religious beliefs through Jupiter, terrorism could also escalate, till Jupiter trines with these planets. More volatility and divergences are expected in financial markets.
So the Full Moon may provide fresh triggers to  continue the downtrend.
The uptrend which began on January 15th, did not change track on January 22, when Mercury became retrograde, but went on right upto January 30, 2015. We have often seen that if a market does not change direction when Mercury goes retrograde, often does so during the mid-period of Mercury retrograde.
February 02, 2015 is the tradable Mercury retro mid period day. And  February 11, happens to be the date when Mercury becomes direct.
Nifty started a down move on January 30, one trading day before Mercury retro mid period day of February 02.
So,  will this down trend continue till Mercury becomes direct? That is, till February 11, 2015?
By the weekend, another important aspect will come into play. Capricorn Sun will oppose Cancerian, retro Jupiter. Given its customary orb, we may see a reversal in the period February 11 to 16, 2015.

So the question is, considering Mercury phenomenon and Jupiter Sun aspect together, will we see a bottom next week?"

Our observations this week...
Mercury continues its retrograde motion and Nifty followed suit throughout the week. We expected a bounce by the Full Moon and that too happened. Full Moon triggered further down fall and Nifty came down upto 8646 before closing at 8661.
Mercury becomes direct on February 12th.Transiting Lagna at 09 am starts transiting in the ninth house for Nifty Futures, from February 13 onwards. So most probably we may see a low formation this week and Nifty should get into pre budget rally from the weekend.
Sun Jupiter opposition occurred on February 06, 2015.Nifty low formation could also be by February 12/13, based on this important aspect.
Of course these are just our assumptions. Let us watch and ascertain what really happens.
Starting from February 16th right upto March 15th, 2015, we are about to go through an intense astro time. There are several aspects which will culminate and bring in major effects in all walks of life, including financial markets.
Entry of Mars into Pisces and Venus into Aquarius merely marks a beginning.
Looking at technicals, first on a weekly mode.,

  On the longer term we find that we are entering a very important reversal period by March 16-20 2015, based on 56 /57 week trends.

On a shorter time period. Nifty has formed an evening star on the weekly. This means some more down move is to be expected this week, before a low is formed.Looking at triangular formation in stochastics, maybe not more than 150 points? It does not matter..if short, just ride the pony, till it bucks.
Cycle updates continue on expected lines. Interaction between the 23 day and 108 day cycle should produce a shallow bottom. Interestingly 12/13 March is the classical cycle top. March 16 is the weekly cycle top. That is also the time zone for the last Uranus Pluto square..

Cycles also point out the same..9082 is the level to watch out for. Black and red cycles form a pair. Blue and green cycles another pair.You can see that Nifty had exceeded the blue cycle target and has reversed. 8531 is an important level to watch out for. It is formed inside the yellow band. 
Finally Neo waves...

Trade cautiously. We are passing through uncertain times...